Favourite or underdog? Learn the difference in esports betting
Favourite or underdog? Learn the difference in esports betting
If you follow matches in Counter-Strike 2, League of Legends, or Dota 2, you’ve probably noticed that bookmakers label teams as either favourites or underdogs. But what does that actually mean – and how can you use that knowledge if you’re interested in esports betting? Here’s a guide to understanding the terms and how they influence odds, strategy, and risk.
What do favourite and underdog mean?
In every match, bookmakers assess which team statistically has the best chance of winning.
- The favourite is the team expected to win. It usually has lower odds because the probability of victory is considered high.
- The underdog is the opponent – the team that, according to the bookmaker, has a smaller chance of winning. That’s why you get higher odds if you bet on them.
For example, if Team Liquid faces a lesser-known team in a European tournament, Liquid will almost always be the favourite. But if the smaller team pulls off an upset, those who backed the underdog will see a much bigger payout.
Why odds look the way they do
Odds reflect more than just team strength – they also mirror market expectations. Bookmakers adjust the numbers based on how people are betting. If many punters back the favourite, the odds may drop further – not because the team suddenly got better, but because the bookmaker wants to balance their risk.
That’s why it’s important to remember that odds aren’t an objective truth. They’re shaped by statistics, recent form, past results, and betting behaviour.
The pros and cons of betting on the favourite
Betting on the favourite often feels like the safe choice. The team has momentum, better players, and a strong track record. But lower risk also means lower reward. If you always back favourites, you’ll need a high win rate to make a profit.
Advantages:
- Higher likelihood of short-term wins.
- Smaller fluctuations in your betting results.
Disadvantages:
- Lower returns per bet.
- Risk of loss if the favourite underperforms or faces an unexpected challenge.
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When the underdog surprises
Backing the underdog takes courage – but it can be very rewarding. In esports, surprises happen more often than many expect. New teams can have untapped potential, and game updates or meta shifts can suddenly change the balance of power.
Advantages:
- Higher odds and bigger potential payouts.
- Opportunity to spot value if you have deeper insight into the teams or the game.
Disadvantages:
- Lower probability of winning.
- Requires more research and understanding of the competitive scene.
A good example is when a young Irish or UK-based team makes a breakthrough in a qualifier. Most bettors will back the established names, but those who’ve followed the scene closely might spot the underdog’s potential early.
How to assess a match yourself
If you want to get better at judging whether a team is truly a favourite or an underdog, consider several factors:
- Recent results: How has the team performed in its last few matches?
- Head-to-head record: Have they faced each other before, and what happened?
- Game meta: Does the team’s playstyle fit the current version of the game?
- Motivation and tournament format: Some teams perform better in knockout stages than in group play.
- Roster changes: New players can dramatically shift team dynamics – for better or worse.
By combining these elements, you can form your own opinion instead of relying solely on the odds.
Balancing risk and strategy
In esports betting, it’s not about always picking the favourite or always chasing underdogs. It’s about finding balance. A smart approach might be to mix safer bets on favourites with occasional punts on underdogs where you see real value in the odds.
Most importantly, always bet responsibly and treat betting as entertainment – not a guaranteed source of income. The better you understand the difference between favourite and underdog, the more informed and enjoyable your betting experience will be.
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